Chengdu Huiyang Investment is facing structural changes at both ends of soda supply and demand.
Global supply: The scale of global soda ash production capacity continues to expand, and China contributes a major increase.
In recent years, the global capacity and output of soda ash are increasing year by year. According to Bloomberg, the capacity of soda ash increased from 44.72 million tons in 2000 to 82.95 million tons in 2023. In 2023, China (50%), North America (18%) and Western Europe (11%) are the main soda production capacity distribution areas. According to Bloomberg statistics, in 2000, the global soda production capacity was 44.721 million tons, and it increased to 66.758 million tons in 2014. China was the main source of capacity increase, and the proportion of soda production capacity in China increased from 19.3% to 45.9%, reaching a historical peak. In 2015-2021, the global soda production capacity increase mostly comes from the Middle East and Africa. In 2023, with the launch of natural alkali production capacity in China, the new global production capacity will be concentrated in China.
Supply in China: capacity expansion by natural alkali method in 2023, and supply may be loose in 2024.
Limited by the industry entry threshold and environmental protection requirements, the growth of soda production capacity in China slowed down from 2016 to 2022, and the new production capacity in 2023 was mainly natural soda production capacity. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, from 2016 to 2022, China’s soda production capacity expanded from 30.79 million tons to 3,485 tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term production suspension enterprises). The scale expansion of soda ash production capacity in the future is expected to be limited, and it is mainly natural alkali. In 2023, with the production capacity of 5 million tons in the first phase of Yuanxing Energy Alashan Natural Alkali Project (4 million tons in 2003 and 1 million tons in early 2004), the production capacity of Henan Jinshan Chemical Industry increased by 2 million tons and the production capacity of other soda plants increased slightly, the domestic soda production capacity totaled 41.65 million tons, up by 11% year-on-year.
Demand: the demand for soda ash with flat glass backing, and the application of new energy is rapidly improving.
In 2023, the apparent consumption of soda ash in China was 31.82 million tons (27.26 million tons in 22 years), 73% of which was mainly used in the glass field. In China, glass is the main downstream application field of soda ash, including flat glass, photovoltaic glass and daily-use glass, and their consumption accounts for 43%, 17% and 13% respectively. Followed by baking soda (7%) and silicate (5%) (2023). Among them, from 2019 to now, with the rapid development of domestic photovoltaic industry, the proportion of photovoltaic glass in the downstream application of soda ash has increased significantly, and in 2023, it has surpassed daily glass to become the second largest application field of soda ash.
Related companies
Yuanxing Energy:The company has been deeply involved in the natural soda industry for many years, and the production capacity of soda ash and baking soda ranks among the top in China. By 2023, the company has a capacity of 5.8 million tons of soda ash, 1.5 million tons of baking soda and 1.54 million tons of urea. The company’s natural alkali has a competitive advantage and its production capacity continues to expand. The company plans to build 7.8 million tons of soda ash and 800,000 tons of baking soda in Alashan natural soda project, including 5 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda in the first phase and 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda in the second phase. The first phase of the project was put into trial operation in June 2023; The second phase of the project started construction in December 2023 and is scheduled to be completed in December 2025. Combined with the analysis of this paper, among the different processes of soda ash, trona process has the most advantages in cost and environmental protection, and trona depends on resource endowment. With the continuous expansion of the company’s trona production capacity, it is expected to obtain excess profits in the industry and provide power for the long-term growth of the company’s performance.
References:20240531- TF Securities-Basic chemical industry: soda ash: both supply and demand sides are facing structural changes.
Disclaimer:The above information comes from Huiyang Research Department, and the content does not provide specific operational guidance, and customers should not use it as a reference factor for investment decisions. Buying on this basis is at your own risk, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
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