Is Vietnam’s economy developing rapidly？ The data tells you
Original digging number
In the past year, the news has often shown that Vietnam’s economy has developed rapidly, and recently Li Ka-shing has held a heavy position in Vietnam, which makes me very curious. In addition, I have a relative, and a friend of my relative went to Thailand to open a textile factory in his early years. Now, wealth is free and children and grandchildren are everywhere, which makes me feel that going to sea in Southeast Asia really seems to be a business opportunity in the future, so I decided to dig.
Hanoi is the capital of Vietnam.
Next to Guangxi and Yunnan, Viet Nam covers an area of 330,000 square kilometers. Compare the areas of several China provinces with it:
The population of Vietnam is similar to that of Guangdong. In 2020, the population of Vietnam was 97.34 million, and that of Guangdong was 126.84 million.
If we put Vietnam’s area and population into the 10 ASEAN countries, it is such a contrast:
(Area on the horizontal axis and population on the vertical axis)
It can be seen that among the ten countries, Vietnam ranks fourth in area and third in population.
The population of Vietnam is very young. In 2019, an article in the Securities Times mentioned:
At present, the average age of more than 95 million Vietnamese population is 29 years old, and 70% of the population is under 35 years old.
The young population has given Vietnam a foundation for economic take-off.
Reform and opening up make the economy grow at a high speed
Vietnam is very similar to China, both of which are socialist countries. In 1978, China proposed reform and opening up and embraced the market economy. In 1986, Vietnam studied China and proposed reform and opening up, and began to embrace the market economy. The reforms implemented since 1986 include:
1. In 1986, private enterprises were allowed to compete with state-owned enterprises in non-strategic fields;
2. 1987: Reform state-owned enterprises, introduce accounting system, replace production targets with income targets, delegate power to managers, and demutualize state-owned enterprises;
3. 1988: The Land Law was passed, allowing farmers to use land for a long time and sell their products in the free market;
4. 1990: The Law on Private Enterprises was passed, providing legal basis for private enterprises, and so on.
Although Vietnam’s GDP growth has been suppressed by China, it has remained above 6% all the year round.
Compare Vietnam’s GDP growth rate with Thailand and the Philippines with similar size;
Vietnam is obviously faster and more stable than the other two countries.
Put the total GDP of Vietnam into the ten ASEAN countries, and the comparison is as follows:
Vietnam is in the middle.
Vietnam’s stock market on the rocket
Compared with Big A’s 3000-point defense war all day, Vietnam’s stock market has soared in the past 10 years.
The above is the VN Index of Vietnamese stock market, which is equivalent to China’s Shanghai Composite Index. In 2010, the index was 490, but now it is 1285, which is 2.62 times in 12 years.
By the end of October, 2021, there were five companies in Vietnam’s stock market with a market value of more than 10 billion US dollars, namely:
The stock market looks at expectations, and the soaring stock market can also show that the national economy is expected to improve. According to a data found in Zhihu, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, ranks first in its stock positions tracking emerging countries, with a proportion of 26%, which is more than three times that of the second Nigerian. It can be understood that among the global developing China countries, except the traditional BRIC countries, Vietnam is basically the first chase target.
Vietnam house price
Hanoi in Vietnam is equivalent to Beijing in China, and Ho Chi Minh City is equivalent to Shanghai. Ho Chi Minh’s urban planning refers to Shanghai:
According to Savills data, as of the third quarter of 2021, the average house price in Ho Chi Minh City was US$ 2,683/m2, which was RMB 17,976/m2 at the current exchange rate.
According to the data of China Investment Network, since 2015, the house price in Ho Chi Minh City has experienced an increase of more than 20% every year. According to CB Richard Ellis’ 2021 Asia-Pacific Investor Intention Survey, Ho Chi Minh City ranks fifth in the Asia-Pacific region, behind Tokyo, Singapore, Seoul and Shanghai.
Curious about the difficulty of buying a house by local people in Ho Chi Minh City, I checked that the local average wage is 2480 yuan/month, and local people can buy a square meter house with a salary of 7.24 months, which is 8.27 months in Shanghai. It seems that buying a house is also quite difficult.
(The average salary of private units in Shanghai in 2020 is 6678 yuan/month, and the average price of second-hand houses in May this year is 55226 yuan/square meter.)
Ho Chi Minh City, tall buildings in the distance and intertwined wires in the vicinity.
Checked the prices of Vietnamese supermarkets and compared them with those of China supermarkets:
Except for chicken and milk, other categories are only a little lower than China’s. According to the average wage of about one-third of Vietnam in China, this price is terrible.
Vietnam’s shortcomings
As can be seen from the above, Vietnam’s economy has developed rapidly, but at best it is the level of China 20 years ago. You should know that the first subway in Vietnam was just opened in 2022, and it was aided by the Beijing subway, not to mention that there is no high-speed rail in Vietnam. The rapid development of manufacturing industry needs a good logistics infrastructure, and Vietnam is still very weak at present.
Vietnam’s size and population determine that it can’t become a manufacturing power. At present, Vietnam only undertakes some low-end manufacturing industries in China, and there are still decades to go before high-end manufacturing industries.
Everything in Vietnam is copied from China, regardless of urban planning, manufacturing or Internet industry. There is a company called Little Tencent in Vietnam, VNG, which just landed on NASDAQ in the United States, with a valuation of 2-3 billion US dollars. It has a social app-Zalo with the largest number of users in Vietnam. This company originally made its fortune as an agent for "Chivalrous Love" of Jinshan Game in China, and the interface of Zalo is very similar to WeChat. As early as 2011, Tencent was VNG.
VNG’s app
Copying everything means a lack of innovation.
END
Original title: Is Vietnam’s economic development faster than that of China? The data tells you "
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