□ Our correspondent in Russia, Shi Tianqi
Recently, the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has been delayed for thousands of days, has once again shown tension. The United States finally decided to relax the restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American aid weapons to Ukraine and allow Ukrainian troops to use long-range weapons to launch attacks on Russian mainland. Shortly after the United States "loosened" Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed on the 19th that the targets in Russia were attacked by the American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) used by the Ukrainian army, which happened to be the 1000-day time node when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out.
On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree and approved the updated Basic Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. The Russian side responded that the Biden administration of the United States allowed Ukraine to use long-range weapons aided by the United States to attack Russian mainland before leaving office, which continued to fuel the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and would lead to further escalation of the situation.
The Biden administration intends to "dig a hole"
On the 17th, American media quoted American officials and sources as saying that Biden’s government had allowed Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike targets in Russia. Among them, The Wall Street Journal said that this is a major shift in US policy and may affect future diplomatic efforts and negotiations. The New York Times pointed out that this is a response to the Ukrainian long-term request, and mentioned that this move may change the battlefield situation, and there is also the risk of triggering a greater conflict.
Since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, the United States, as one of Ukraine’s most important supporting countries, has provided it with tens of billions of dollars in military and economic assistance. However, in order to prevent the conflict from escalating into a broader direct confrontation, the United States has set some restrictions, such as prohibiting attacks on targets in Russia, while assisting Ukrainian weapons. Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly appealed to the United States to lift the restrictions, but the Democratic government of the United States has not "loosened" under the pressure of different voices at home and abroad.
Analysts here believe that since the Republican government will come to power in January next year, the Biden administration’s policy change aims to leave as many "tingwu" political legacies as possible to prevent US President-elect Trump from reversing the situation. In addition to "loosening" Ukraine, the Biden administration will also provide Ukraine with a new batch of weapons assistance. The Associated Press quoted US officials as saying on the 19th that the United States will provide Ukraine with new weapons worth at least $275 million.
The Ukrainian army responded quickly after the United States "loosened" it. On November 19, Uzbekistan issued a notice saying that the Ukrainian army had attacked an arsenal in Russia about 110 kilometers away from the Russian-Ukrainian border and caused a second explosion. On the same day, Russia said that in the early morning of the same day, the Oblast oblast was attacked by six American ATACMS missiles of the Ukrainian army, five of which were shot down by the Russian air defense system, and the remaining one was damaged due to Russian interception, and its fragments fell into a military area in the state. It caused a fire, but it was immediately put out. On the same day, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out for 1000 days. It was far-reaching that the Ukrainian army used American weapons to attack Russia for the first time.
European allies have different minds.
The "loosening" of the United States has aroused widespread concern among its European allies. However, European countries have obvious differences in attitudes and actions on this issue based on their respective security interests and policies toward Russia.
In recent years, Britain has continued to increase its military assistance to Ukraine, but it has no position on the behavior of the United States. Despite this, the British media reported on the 20th that Ukraine attacked the Kursk region of Russia for the first time with the permission of western countries. The Times quoted a source as saying that the ban on Ukraine using the British "Shadow of the Storm" missile to attack Russia is likely to have been lifted.
France responded positively to the actions of Biden’s government. French President Macron said on the 18th that Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use American-made weapons to attack targets in Russia was "a correct decision". Deriviere, France’s permanent representative to the United Nations, hinted that France would support Uzbekistan in cracking down on military targets related to Russian special military operations. French newspaper le figaro reported in a report on 18th that France and Britain had allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by the two countries to attack Russian deep targets, but later deleted relevant paragraphs in the online version.
Germany is facing the pressure of Biden’s decision, but it remains cautious. According to a report on the website of Sü ddeutsche Zeitung on the 18th, German Chancellor Angela Scholz will not change the principle of providing Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. It is reported that Scholz is worried that the supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine may lead to an escalation of the conflict with Russia. A spokesman for the German Ministry of Defence stressed that all the weapons provided by Germany so far are not long-range weapons.
At the same time, many European countries are worried that the "loosening" of the United States will lead to further escalation of the situation. Italian Foreign Minister Taiani reiterated that the Italian government’s position will not change, saying that "these weapons can only be used in Ukraine". Hungary, Slovakia and other countries have expressed their opposition to this, saying that it is precisely because of the poor foreign policy of the European Union that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has developed to this point, which has destroyed the relations between countries in continental Europe and intensified Europe’s dependence on the United States.
Russia’s updated nuclear policy counter-measures
The Russian side issued a strong warning to the United States to relax restrictions on the use of long-range weapons to aid Ukraine. Peskov, Russian Presidential Press Secretary, said on the 18th that it is obvious that the outgoing Democratic Party government intends to continue to add fuel to the fire and provoke further escalation of tension. Maria Zacharova, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said in a statement that if Ukraine uses long-range missiles to attack Russian mainland, it will mean that the United States and its client countries will directly participate in the war, "and it will also mean that the nature and nature of the conflict will be fundamentally changed. Under this circumstance, Russia’s counterattack will be an eye for an eye and will never be soft. "
Putin signed a presidential decree on the 19th, approving the new version of the Basic Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. According to the relevant documents published on the website of the Russian President, the basic principle of the basic policy of the new nuclear deterrent country is that nuclear weapons are the last means to defend national sovereignty. At the same time, due to the emergence of new military threats and risks, Russia needs to confirm the specific circumstances of allowing the use of nuclear weapons. According to this document, any aggression against Russia and/or its allies by non-nuclear countries with the participation or support of nuclear countries will be regarded as a joint attack by non-nuclear countries and nuclear countries against Russia.
Peskov said on the 19th that if Ukraine attacks Russia with western conventional missiles, then Russia can respond with nuclear weapons according to the new basic policy of nuclear deterrent countries. Naryshkin, director of Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency, said in an interview with Russian Defense magazine on the 20th that some NATO members will never get away with trying to participate in supporting long-range strikes against Russian mainland. Western countries have realized the seriousness of Russia’s position and the necessity of restraining their own actions, because "direct military conflict with Russia will bring them disastrous consequences."
Public opinion in Russia generally regards the US policy adjustment as a "provocation" and a "danger signal". However, some analysts pointed out that Ukraine’s use of American-made weapons is still restricted by the US policy. The Russian side has formed a strong counter-measure against the United States’ "loosening" of Ukraine by lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, which will make the United States and Ukraine have more scruples when trying to use American-made long-range weapons to attack Russia in the future. In addition, Trump repeatedly criticized the Biden administration for its excessive military assistance to Ukraine, and did not rule out the possibility of adjusting its "loosening" measures against Ukraine after taking office.
